A new study by political scientist Eric Kaufmann is making waves in conservative media. Published as “The Decline of Trans and Queer Identity among Young Americans,” the report claims that fewer Gen Z and college-aged people now identify as transgender or nonbinary than they did in 2022 or 2023. Conservative outlets are treating it as proof that the gender identity movement is losing steam.
Before anyone starts celebrating, it’s worth looking closely at the study’s weak spots and how its conclusions fall apart under scrutiny.
What the Kaufmann Report Claims
Kaufmann’s research draws on several small surveys, including data from the Foundation for Individual Rights in Education (FIRE), to argue that the number of students identifying outside the male-female binary has “halved” since 2023. He links this supposed change to a “vibe shift” away from progressive culture, suggesting that students are becoming less “woke.”
Right-wing sites have seized on the claim. Headlines like “Peak Trans Has Arrived” and “Nonbinary Trend Is Over” have appeared across major outlets. These stories paint a picture of retreat and correction, as if young people are finally “coming to their senses.”
Why the Study Is Flawed
- Cherry-picked data. Kaufmann relies on a limited set of campus surveys instead of nationally representative studies. When wider, weighted data are examined, the supposed decline is far less dramatic or nonexistent.
- Unweighted samples. The FIRE data used were not adjusted for demographic accuracy. Without weighting, results are skewed toward certain groups, making the findings unreliable.
- Lack of context. The study blames cultural shifts but ignores political factors such as anti-trans legislation, campus hostility, and media-driven fear. Many young people may be less willing to openly identify, not less likely to be transgender.
- Correlation vs. causation. Kaufmann suggests that better mental health has led to fewer trans identities. There is no evidence to support that claim. Correlation is not causation, and the report provides none of the statistical rigor required to prove it.
- Label confusion. Most of the supposed decline comes from fewer students identifying as “nonbinary” or “other.” Many trans people still identify as male or female. Reducing a complex population to one label paints an incomplete picture.
Why Right-Wing Media Is Celebrating
This story fits a familiar pattern. Conservative outlets find a poorly designed study, frame it as proof that “the trend is ending,” and use it to justify attacks on trans rights. The narrative becomes a political tool rather than a reflection of reality. It allows lawmakers to claim that fewer trans people exist and that rolling back protections will not matter.
That narrative is dangerous. It dehumanizes real people and treats trans identity as a passing fad. In truth, trans existence is not an ideology or a phase; it is part of the human experience, visible or not.
The Bottom Line
Reliable, nationally weighted data show that trans and nonbinary people remain a consistent and growing part of society. What changes is how safe people feel being open about who they are. Flawed studies can never erase the fact that trans people exist, deserve rights, and will continue to live authentically no matter how others spin the numbers.
The Kaufmann study is weak science dressed up as social commentary. The right can celebrate it all they want, but trans people are not going anywhere.
