A newly published study in Psychology of Sexual Orientation and Gender Diversity is raising serious questions about one of the most widely cited statistics in debates over transgender youth: the claim that 60 to 90 percent of young people eventually stop identifying as transgender.
The research, led by Catherine S. J. Wall of Virginia Commonwealth University, conducted a comprehensive review of existing literature on gender identity development in children and adolescents. Using a multi-method approach that included meta-analysis, statistical modeling, and qualitative review, the study found that the commonly referenced “desistance” rate is not supported by reliable scientific evidence.
Instead, the authors concluded that the number is rooted in outdated studies with significant methodological flaws.
Many of the earlier studies, the paper explains, did not clearly distinguish between children who were transgender and those who were simply gender nonconforming. As a result, children who did not strictly adhere to gender norms but did not identify as transgender were often included in the data. This inflated the number of individuals later categorized as having “desisted.”
The study also found that results varied dramatically depending on how researchers defined and measured gender identity over time. In some cases, the same datasets could produce desistance rates ranging from zero percent to 100 percent based solely on different assumptions and analytical methods.
That level of variability, the authors argue, signals a lack of scientific reliability.
Beyond statistical concerns, the paper raises broader questions about the concept of “desistance” itself. The term has been widely used in both academic and political contexts, but the study suggests it is inconsistently defined and often misunderstood. Researchers caution that applying the label too broadly can misrepresent the lived experiences of transgender and gender-diverse youth.
The findings arrive at a time when debates over gender-affirming care and transgender rights continue across the United States and internationally. The 60 to 90 percent figure has frequently been cited in legislative hearings, court cases, and public discourse as justification for restricting access to care for minors.
According to the study, relying on that statistic may reflect a misunderstanding of the underlying science.
Rather than establishing a definitive alternative rate, the researchers emphasize that current evidence does not support a single, reliable estimate of how gender identity develops over time. They call for more rigorous, modern research that reflects current understandings of gender diversity and uses clearer definitions and methodologies.
For now, the study suggests that one of the most commonly cited talking points in discussions about transgender youth may not be grounded in solid evidence after all.
